Comment: This is worth a read -- lot of effort went into this one. In the past the active duty side tended to dismiss these as overreactive. This one is different.
Full Report Online
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https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-108466
GAO-25-108466 Published: Sep 10, 2025. Publicly Released: Sep 10, 2025.
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Fast Facts
DOD is replacing the Air Force's Minuteman III missile—which is over 50 years old—with the new Sentinel system. The transition is the most complex project the service has undertaken.
But the Air Force hasn't developed a risk management plan for this transition. A risk management plan would outline how to anticipate, analyze, and solve problems.
Also, the Air Force may need to operate Minuteman III for 25 more years because of Sentinel delays and increasing costs. It needs a plan to address the risks associated with maintaining the aging system. Parts may no longer be available, for example.
Our recommendations address these issues and more.
Highlights
What GAO Found
The Air Force has developed planning documents for the transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel but has not developed a risk management plan. The transition was planned to begin in fiscal year 2025, but those plans are on hold while the Department of Defense (DOD) restructures the Sentinel program. The Air Force developed an overarching transition strategy and a site transition plan for F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming, the first base scheduled to convert to Sentinel. However, the Air Force has not yet developed a transition risk management plan, a leading project planning practice. A detailed risk management plan would help the Air Force establish an organized, methodical way to identify, assess, and respond to the myriad risks, and better position the Air Force for a successful transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel.
While the Air Force has taken some actions to prepare operators, maintainers, and security forces for the transition, the Air Force has not developed a schedule for construction of a Sentinel test facility. The test facility is necessary early in the transition as part of a multistep process to revise policy and instructions that will be needed to prepare security forces for the transition and concurrent operation of Minuteman III and Sentinel.
Figure 1: Components of the Minuteman III ICBM System
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Programming plans. According to Global Strike Command officials, they plan to issue four individual programming plans—one for each of the three missile bases plus Vandenberg Space Force Base. Global Strike Command officials stated that because each base is unique, they decided to issue individual programming plans, rather than a combined plan. Global Strike Command has issued the programming plan for Vandenberg Space Force Base, and drafted two others, one for F.E. Warren Air Force Base and one for Malmstrom Air Force Base.[33] According to Global Strike Command officials, neither drafted programming plans have estimated time frames for final signature as they are on hold until Sentinel has completed its Milestone B decision. The programming plans capture Global Strike Command’s overall strategy for the transition, containing detailed annexes covering logistics, operations, security forces, and other areas directed by Air Force policy.[34] According to Global Strike Command officials, drafting for the programming plan for Minot Air Force Base was scheduled to begin in March 2025.
Sentinel Delays Require Modifications to Transition Planning
While Global Strike Command has developed several transition planning documents, the Sentinel restructuring has delayed the start of the transition and will require the command to modify its transition planning and update planning documents accordingly. For example, prior to the Sentinel restructuring, Global Strike Command planned to begin transitioning Minuteman III missile silos and launch control centers in fiscal year (FY) 2025. Those plans are currently on hold while DOD restructures the Sentinel program. As of April 2025, Global Strike Command officials stated there is no updated schedule.
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Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected |
Recommendation |
Status |
| Department of the Air Force |
The Secretary of the Air Force should develop a transition risk management plan for the transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel ICBM. The plan should include a transition risk report and a risk register in future Programming Plan updates. (Recommendation 1) |
Open
When we confirm what actions the agency has taken in response to this recommendation, we will provide updated information.
|
| Department of the Air Force |
The Secretary of the Air Force should establish a detailed, logical, and sequenced schedule for completion of the Physical Security System Test Facility that aligns with Sentinel restructuring plans and reflects scheduling best practices. (Recommendation 2) |
Open
When we confirm what actions the agency has taken in response to this recommendation, we will provide updated information.
|
| Department of the Air Force |
The Secretary of the Air Force should complete an assessment of personnel needs for the transition, including potential Reserve Component support for the transition. (Recommendation 3) |
Open
When we confirm what actions the agency has taken in response to this recommendation, we will provide updated information.
|
| Department of the Air Force |
The Secretary of the Air Force should expeditiously develop a post-2030 Minuteman III operational test launch plan that is aligned with a Sentinel fielding plan and coordinated with the Department of Energy. (Recommendation 4) |
Open
When we confirm what actions the agency has taken in response to this recommendation, we will provide updated information.
|
| Department of the Air Force |
The Secretary of the Air Force should specifically address Minuteman III sustainment risks in the overall transition risk management plan. (Recommendation 5) |
Open
When we confirm what actions the agency has taken in response to this recommendation, we will provide updated information.
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| Department of the Air Force |
The Secretary of the Air Force should specifically address the personnel and materiel implications of a decision to re-MIRV ICBMs as part of the overall transition risk management plan. (Recommendation 6) |
Open
When we confirm what actions the agency has taken in response to this recommendation, we will provide updated information.
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