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"ICBM community cancer registry analysis: a focus on Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma cases in missileers"

  • 28 Apr 2025 05:12
    Message # 13492482

    Comment:  First item is the new Cancer Registry Study followed by AI analysis of the study.  Next item is Military.com article followed by AI analysis of that article.  Finally new study is available as .pdf file at end of this posting.


    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.08004

    "ICBM community cancer registry analysis: a focus on Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma cases in missileers"

    Dawn L. Sanderson Bldg 641 Rm 227 2950 Hobson Way Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433 dawn.sanderson@us.af.mil

    Richard L. Smith, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, UNC Chapel Hill

    Quote:

    Our goal in this initial analysis differs slightly from those works previously cited, as we seek to determine statistical significance of a pre-defined cancer within a specific career field at a single location over a defined period of time. Additionally, our source of cancer incidences is not a military medical affiliated database such as the Automated Central Tumor Registry (ACTUR), Veterans Affairs Central Cancer Registry (VACCR), or Defense Medical Surveillance System (DMSS). We acknowledge up front that using an outside registry has potential for missing data; however, we may also capture cases not reported through any of the above systems, such as non-retired veterans. One of the obstacles of conducting this study without the use of military databases is the lack of personnel data necessary to define the overall cohort. However, this creates an opportunity to develop new methodology in such instances where the only data in hand is for those in the population who were diagnosed. Therefore, our approach offers a method for estimating the underlying population with a corresponding assessment of how this estimation affects the overall study results.

    _______________________________________________________________

    UNC Chapel Hill Study on Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

    The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill conducted independent research examining non-Hodgkin lymphoma cases among service members who worked with nuclear missiles at Malmstrom Air Force Base. The research, which analyzed data provided by the Torchlight Initiative, found that it was very unlikely that the high rates of blood cancer would have occurred by chance. The study also noted that the modest population size constrained the power of the analyses. This research is significant as it provides the first independent analysis of cancer data since the Air Force announced its investigation into health concerns among current and former members of the service's nuclear missile community.

    The Torchlight Initiative, a grassroots group of current and former missileers, created a cancer registry for those who worked on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The university's report used this registry and compared it to national rates in the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program (SEER). The findings showed that non-Hodgkin lymphoma is occurring at higher rates and at younger ages than the national average.

    The research was not sponsored by the Department of Defense, the Air Force, or the U.S. government. It is considered a starting point for future research and suggests potential underlying risk factors or exposures unique to the missile community.

    _______________________________________________________

    https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/04/25/new-study-finds-statistically-significant-blood-cancer-diagnoses-montana-missile-base.html

    "Independent Study Raises Alarm About Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma at Malmstrom Air Force Base"

    Military.com | By Thomas Novelly

    Published April 25, 2025 at 10:52am ET

    _______________________________________________________________

    Independent Study Raises Alarm

    An independent academic study has raised concerns about non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) among service members who served at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana. The study, conducted by a doctoral candidate and professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, found that service members were diagnosed with NHL at younger ages compared to the general population, suggesting a possible link between their service and the occurrence of cancer.

    The research analyzed self-reported cancer data from the Torchlight Initiative, a nonprofit organization involving current and former service members who worked with America's intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Torchlight Initiative's registry includes more than 635 reported cancer cases, with the study focusing on 18 cases of NHL.

    According to the findings, the probability of 18 missileers within the study population being diagnosed with NHL is 2.1 in 1,000 trillion, indicating that the high rates of blood cancer are extremely unlikely to have occurred by chance. This suggests that there may be underlying risk factors or exposures unique to this population that need further investigation.

    The Air Force has previously investigated potential cancer clusters among missileers, including a site evaluation and sampling for potential chemical and biological contaminants at Malmstrom in 2001.  However, the new research emphasizes the need for immediate steps to understand the scope of the problem, identify the cause or causes, and mitigate the risks.

    • Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL): A cancer that starts in white blood cells and can affect the immune system, with cases among Malmstrom Air Force Base service members occurring at higher rates and younger ages than the national average.

    • Torchlight Initiative: A grassroots nonprofit involving current and former service members who worked with America's intercontinental ballistic missiles, which has created a cancer registry for those who worked on ICBMs.

    • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill: Conducted the independent research examining non-Hodgkin lymphoma cases among service members who worked with nuclear missiles at Malmstrom Air Force Base.



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    Last modified: 09 May 2025 09:37 | Anonymous member

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