Comment:  Status Report to Congress on Sentinel Missile updated 19 Mar 24 by  Anya L. Fink , Analyst in Defense Policy.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11681

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Program Status

The Air Force plans to procure 634 missiles, plus an additional 25 missiles to support development and testing, to enable the deployment of a force of 400 missiles by FY2036 through at least FY2075. As of early 2024, the missile’s forward and aft sections, as well as its rocket motor, have been undergoing testing, according to Northrop Grumman, the Sentinel’s lead defense contractor. According to the Air Force, the program also involves the modernization of “450 silos and more than 600 facilities across almost 40,000 square miles over 6 states, 3 operational wings and a test location.” To provide program coordination, the Air Force recently stood up an ICBM Modernization Directorate in the Air Force Global Strike Command, as directed by the FY2023 NDAA.

In January 2024, the Air Force reportedly informed Congress that the Sentinel program exceeded its initial cost projections, noting a 37% increase (from $118 million initial baseline cost to $162 million in 2020 dollars) in the cost per missile. This cost increase is known as a “critical” breach per the Nunn-McCurdy Act, which requires that the Secretary of Defense certify that the program is essential to national security, has no cheaper alternatives, and cannot be terminated. It also mandates that DOD develop and validate new cost estimates and program milestones and submit this information to Congress.

Air Force officials have also suggested that the program could be delayed by as much as two years and stated that cost and schedule challenges have arisen primarily from updates to the missile’s supporting infrastructure, including silos, launch control facilities, and below-ground communications cabling, as well as from supply chain disruptions. A June 2023 GAO report also warned of potential risks to cost and schedule involving immature technologies, software development, and cybersecurity.

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Disclaimer This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of Congress.

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This In Focus was originally authored by Amy F. Woolf, Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy. Benji Johnson, former CRS U.S. Air Force Fellow, contributed to the research and writing of this In Focus.