US Air Force artist’s rendering of the Sentinel in flight. (Credit: US Air Force)
WASHINGTON — Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said today he is “nervous” about unforeseen challenges in the $96 billion LGM-35A Sentinel program to develop a next-generation nuclear missile that will push up costs — with the service now assessing what changes may be required.
“Sentinel, I think, is quite honestly struggling a little bit. There are unknown unknowns that are surfacing … in the program and that the department is gonna have to work its way through,” he told the Center for a New American Security.
Air Force leaders for some time have been raising red flags about a possible delay in the program, with the Government Accountability Office (GAO) in June finding that a year delay was likely. Up to now, however, service officials have asserted that it still will be possible for it to meet the 2030 deadline for initial operational capability.
Designed to replace the aging Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Sentinel effort is a massive undertaking that includes not only development of the missile itself, but also building new underground facilities to house it and a new command and control system.
“Sentinel is one of the most large complex programs I’ve ever seen. It’s probably the biggest thing in some ways that the Air Force has ever taken,” Kendall said.
And while reluctant to go into detail about the problems — noting that he has been recused from the development because of a former industry connection — he said that the complexity of the program has raised uncertainties from its very beginning.
“As we get more into the program, as we understand more deeply what we’re actually going to have to do, we’re finding some things that are going to cost money. There’s no question about that. And we’re trying to assess how much of an impact that’s going to have and what kind of adjustments we’re going to make because of it,” Kendall said.
That said, he stressed that Sentinel is one of the service’s top-priority nuclear modernization programs that simply “cannot fail.”
In his wide-ranging discussion at CNAS, Kendall also noted his worries about the effects of yet another continuing resolution (CR) on high priority Air Force and Space Force programs. He explained that a CR not only blocks “new start” programs in the coming fiscal year, but also prohibits planned funding ramp ups for development programs and multiyear outlays for procurement efforts.
For example, he said that a CR would prevent the Air Force’s plan to “double” spending in fiscal 2024 on the Advanced Battle Management System (ABMS) that represents the Air and Space Forces contribution to the Pentagon’s Joint All Domain Command and Control (JADC2) network-of-networks. The service requested about $500 million for ABMS for FY24, with a steep increase through 2026.
Kendall also noted concerns about the effects on the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM), designed to replace the venerable AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), which he said back in May would “hopefully” begin production by prime contractor Lockheed Martin this year.
“That’s an essential weapon system for us to maintain air superiority in the future. And we really need to get that into production as soon as we can,” he said.
Clearly frustrated with the ongoing budget battle on Capitol Hill, Kendall was especially worried about the possibility of a year-long CR.
“If we have a year long CR, I’m looking at the possibility that my entire tenure in office will be spent waiting for money from the Congress,” he said. “And I will have identified in the first few months what we need to do ask the Congress for that money and then spent the entire rest of the term waiting for that money to be appropriated.”
